World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2024: A Turbulent Outlook
The World Economic Forum (WEF) has published its Global Risks Report 2024. The annual report, which is developed in collaboration with Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group, is a source of intelligence and information on current and emerging risks faced around the world. The report is typically released to coincide with the WEF annual meeting in Davos and sets the stage for topical discussions during that convening.
This year’s report is the nineteenth edition of the Global Risks Report. Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, WEF, notes in her preface to the report, that the “insights are underpinned by nearly two-decades of original data on global risk perception.” The reporting process involves consultation with more than 1,500 global experts, and assesses imminent risks over one-, two-, and ten-year horizons.
The 2024 report identifies a series of accelerating changes that could reshape the world in the coming decade, and it highlights the global risks that are likely to present material crises. It builds upon the Global Risks Report 2023, which emphasized the interconnectedness of the pressing global risks (see Verde Impact Forecast for Davos – the Polycrisis (2023)).
The Global Risks Report 2024 identifies the scope of challenges that the world faces as a result of four structural forces: (1) climate change; (2) demographic bifurcation; (3) technological acceleration; and (4) geostrategic shifts. Relative instability and a moderate risk of global catastrophes are anticipated in the short term. The long-term outlook is more turbulent over the next decade. The risks that pose the most significant threat in the long term include climate change, demographic changes, and technological and geopolitical shifts.
The key findings section in the report leads with the heading: “A deteriorating global outlook,” and follows that up with a second heading: “Environmental risks could hit the point of no return.” Environmental risks dominate across all three risk timeframes. Across the two-year horizon, extreme weather events and pollution rank among the top ten risks. The ten-year outlook ranks “extreme weather events, critical change to Earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, natural resource shortages, and pollution” among the top ten global risks.
The pathway is clear: without a course correction, we will experience fundamental shortages and irreversible damage to the natural systems upon which we rely. Climate change is identified as a major systemic element of the global landscape that will shape the materialization and management of global risks over the next decade. Extreme weather events like record-breaking heat conditions, drought, wildfires, and flooding have emerged as the top risk most likely to create a global crisis. The report warns of the threats to climate-vulnerable populations, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem collapse.
Social and economic issues round out the top ten risks. Misinformation and disinformation have emerged as significant global risks. The report warns that these could further widen societal and political divides, undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments, and incite violent protests and civil confrontation. Societal polarization is another top risk. The report warns that divisive factors such as political polarization and economic hardship could erode social cohesion and leave ample room for new and evolving risks to propagate.
Economic uncertainties, such as inflation and economic downturn, are notable entrants on the top risk rankings. The report also highlights the risks related to conflict and security. It warns of the risk of the escalation or outbreak of interstate armed conflicts and the rise in conflict due to simmering geopolitical tensions combined with technological advances. In the report’s conclusion, the WEF calls for “[l]ocalized strategies, breakthrough endeavors, collective actions and cross-border coordination” to address the mounting risks.
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