Forecast for Davos – the Polycrisis
The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) begins Monday in Davos. This year’s theme is Cooperation in a Fragmented World, which captures the crucial point that collaborative solutions are needed if we are to mitigate the critical global risks we are currently facing.
WEF released The Global Risks Report 2023, developed in collaboration with Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group, in advance of the convening. Measured across three timeframes (current, two-year and ten-year outlooks) and five categories (economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological), the report ranks the key risks. Today, the energy crisis is paramount, along with food scarcity and the cost of living. The ten-year forecast tells us that by 2033, the impact and severity of climate and environmental issues will overtake the list and account for six of the top ten risks.
Perhaps the most striking aspect of the ranked risks is their interconnectedness. The report provides critical analysis of the polycrisis we are facing – and discusses the crises in multiple global systems where the risks are more interdependent and damaging than ever to humanity. Many of those are "old" and recurring risks such as energy, hunger and inequality, which we have sought to resolve with the Sustainable Development Goals. They are now coupled with new geopolitical, societal and economic risks and compounded by the climate crises.
WEF, echoing what has been stated by the United Nations, reports that we are at a strategic inflection point. Risk mitigation necessitates a new vanguard with cooperation among elected officials, community leaders and corporate chiefs with a sharper lens on accountability.
With the advent of the forum in Davos, there has been an uptick in reporting on the pronounced climate impacts in the nearby Alps – which are visible from space and have caused considerable economic consequences for the region.
Monday is also the day we honor the life and legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. There may be no more important time than the present to be guided by Dr. King’s teachings and advocacy on equality and in the words of The King Center, his leadership of “similar campaigns against poverty and international conflict, always maintaining fidelity to his principles that men and women everywhere, regardless of color or creed, are equal members of the human family.”
